5 games in 4 days!?! Shut your face!

August 16, 2006 by alex

That’s right. The Yankees and Red Sox are going to fight through 5 games between Friday and Monday, starting off with a day/night doubleheader on Friday. For the past couple of months I have maintained that we will have a much clearer idea of the way things stand after this weekend’s series. There are some key factors at play here:

It’s been awhile since the teams faced each other and the teams look a bit different than they did back in June. The Yankees are still missing Matsui and Sheffield and made it through a monthlong spell without Robinson Cano, who recently returned. The Red Sox are now missing Trot Nixon, Tim Wakefield and Jason Varitek - the last two being the most important and Varitek, whose seemingly completely ineffectual offensive season is dwarfed by the obvious influence over the general success of the pitching staff - especially with all of their young arms in key roles. The team’s recent struggles to some extent seem to be a result of them losing some confidence and that is not going to be replaced with Javy Lopez or Corky Miller. On the bright side, Wily Mo Pena has excelled in his increased offensive role while still providing the occaisional adventure in the field.

The Yanks had a successful trading deadline - adding Bobby Abreu, Cory Lidle and Craig Wilson for what seems like, Shawn Chacon. While these deals might make Bernie Williams a little ornery, the Yankees managed to plug 3 of their holes pretty well, without giving up too much. For the record, I think Abreu has one of the sweeter swings I’ve seen in a while - so effortless. It also seems like he’s really happy playing here, which is nice.

The competitive makeup of the American League has changed a bit since June. The Yanks claimed first recently after the Sox had held onto it for most of the season. The Blue Jays, once thought to be contenders, have all but fallen out of the race. The Twins, once though to be left for dead, have climbed back into the race (thought it remains to be seen what they can do sans Liriano). The AL West seems to be up for grabs with little chance of their performace affecting the wild card so we’ll forget about them.

The main problem for both teams seems to be somewhat unpredictable starting pitching and bullpens with holes. I can’t not address the A-Rod situation. Having been at the Wang/Weaver game this past Sunday and watching the O’s game last night, I think A-Rod is nearing a make-or-break time for this season with this weekend series. A few big hits and no big errors could go a long way to getting the fans off his back. Ironically I think he’s better off in Fenway where everyone gets booed (even Jetah!) whereas he seems so isolated in New York - while guys like Melky are treated like heroes. I also think A-Rod could benefit from a Manny-like media silence, though for a different reason. He thinks too much about what he says and cares too much about what people think about it. Let Jeter do the talking and focus on not booting balls. There’s a chance (though I’m less and less optimistic) that we can get A-Rod turned around this weekend and ride him (ew) into October. I guess we’ll know on Tuesday.

Anyway, let’s get to the matchups and predictions. The uniqueness of a 5 game series if one game goes differently than the “split” and we’re talking a 3 game swing. Getting 2 wins out of the way quickly would be awesome, though unlikely:

*Update* The original matchups were wrong. Wang in the afternoon and Ponson in the nightcap.

Game 1: * Chien Ming Wang vs. Jason Johnson *This game could really be a bullpen-obliterating bloodbath that sets an interesting tone for the weekend. I say 8-5 Sox.

Game 2: * Sidney Ponson vs. Jon Lester * The dueling young’ens of the staffs. I say Yanks win 5-3.

Game 3: Randy Johnson vs. Josh Beckett * The two most unpredictable “Aces” in the rivalry in a while, both with a propensity for the long ball. I say advantage Johnson. Yanks with 6-5.

Game 4: Mike Mussina vs. Curt Schilling * This is the obvious pick the the gem of the series (ESPN Sunday Night game). Close one. Sox win 3-2.

Game 5: Cory Lidle vs. David Wells * I actually have no idea what’ll happen here. Whatever - I’ll be confident. Yanks win 5-4.

Anyway, there you have it. Drop some thoughts/predicitions in the comments.

See you monday!

Tags: baseball, predictions, red sox, yankees

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